SRI LANKAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
Volumes 23 Number 1. 2022
Author - K.B.M.T. Dilrukshi, K.V.V.N. Jayalath, S.N. Dissanayake and S.M.S.D. Perera
This study attempted to analyze the volatility of the retail price of coconuts using monthly time series data from January 1991 to July 2020 and forecast the same for July 2020 to June 2021. The analysis found the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) (1,1) model as the best fit model. Coefficients of past values of the error term and conditional variance are positive and significant indicating positive impacts on the prevailing price volatility. Coefficients of lagged values of conditional variance and error terms are 0.771 and 0.179 respectively. The study concludes that the volatility shocks persist, and the model is appropriate to forecast the retail price of coconuts in Sri Lanka.
Author - H.M.S. Priyanath and T.E.I. Dangalla
Sri Lanka is a country rich in natural resources and traditional values and eco-friendly agricultural practices. Therefore, people, especially in the past moved to things that were of quality and nutritious for their lives. However, when focusing on Sri Lankan food and beverages market at the present, still organic food has a narrow market in which the level of consumption is very low. Therefore, this study aims to identify the factors influencing consumers’ organic food buying behaviour in Sri Lanka. Data were collected from 200 consumers who purchase organic foods in the Kegalle divisional secretariate division through a survey conducted using a structured questionnaire. The data were analyzed using Pearson’s correlation coefficients, analysis of variance, and multiple regression techniques from Minitab-17 statistical software. The results revealed that cultural, personal, social, economic, and psychological factors that have a clear positive relationship with the consumers’ organic food buying behaviour while both psychological and personal factors have a powerful significant impact on organic food buying behaviour.
Author - S.D. Hewavitharana, I.V. Kuruppu, and E.A.C. Priyankara
Cinnamon is the most valuable and important spice export crop in Sri Lanka which accounts over 85% of the world cinnamon exports. Competitiveness is one of the major challenges in cinnamon trade in an era of free trade. Intense competition faced by Sri Lanka with other countries results in adverse impacts on cinnamon trade thus decreasing its potential trading opportunities. This study aims to analyze the export competitiveness of Sri Lankan cinnamon in the world market. The study also considers the world’s top 10 cinnamon exporters. The contribution of this paper is that it measures the comparative advantage using a range of indexes namely the Balassa Revealed Comparative Advantage Index (BRCA), Additive Revealed Comparative Advantage Index (ARCA), Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage Index (NRCA), Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage Index (RSCA) and Trade Balance Index (TBI) for the period from 2001 to 2020. Data are extracted from the International Trade Center (ITC) trade map (COMTRADE) database. BRCA (566.49), ARCA (0.01207), NRCA (7.28*10-6), and RSCA (0.996) result indicate that Sri Lanka has the highest comparative advantage in the global cinnamon export market. Madagascar (0.999) has the highest TBI value. The result of product mapping indicates that Sri Lanka, Madagascar, Vietnam, Indonesia and China have both comparative advantage and positive trade balances over other countries.
Author - M G D Abeysekara1 and D V P Prasada
This study estimates the output supply response of coconut in major producing countries using the cointegration approach. Regional variations in the domestic
coconut production in Sri Lanka, India (represented by the state of Kerala), and the Philippines were captured by applying a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). National aggregate time series data for the period 1970-2019 were used in the analysis. The empirical results show that unique long-run equilibrium relationships exist among coconut production, the coconut price, and the climate variable in three individual markets and the panel estimation. The regional disparities are revealed by the short-run dynamics throughout the analysis. Altogether, the econometric estimates provide strong evidence that the coconut producers respond rationally to the changes in own price and other supply determinants. However, both short and long-run price elasticities of the coconut supply response are rather low amidst its significance, suggesting that any pricing policy requires a comparatively long lead time for it to become effective in accelerating production. Furthermore, the estimated panel VECM can be further developed and validated to be used as a tool to analyze the regional deviances for assisting the policymakers in making comprehensive strategies to ensure the industry’s long-term sustainability.